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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThere's a relatively slow rate cut desire from the Fed, says Jefferies' David ZervosDavid Zervos, Jefferies chief market strategist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss Zervos' response to Austan Goolsbee's latest comments, the question marks around the macroeconomy, and much more.
Persons: Jefferies, David Zervos David Zervos, Austan Organizations: Jefferies
New York CNN —The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite index and S&P 500 broke records Thursday afternoon. The S&P 500, meanwhile, gained 0.5% to close at a new high of 5,096.27. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the day slightly higher, up 47 points, or 0.1%. The S&P 500 was up 5.2% for the month, the Dow was 2.2% higher and the Nasdaq gained 6.1%. All S&P 500 subsectors ended the month in positive territory.
Persons: Austan Goolsbee, , , subsectors, Bitcoin, bitcoin Organizations: New, New York CNN, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Commerce Department, Fed, Investors, Chicago Fed, Council, Foreign Relations, Dow, Deutsche Bank, Nvidia Locations: New York
Washington, DC CNN —Americans racked up a record amount of credit card debt in 2023, soaring past a trillion dollars. “Consumers still have a lot of money left over to be able to spend, so the credit card data is often misinterpreted,” Russell Price, chief economist at Ameriprise Financial, told CNN. According to a LendingTree analysis of more than 350,000 credit reports, the average unpaid credit card balance was $6,864 in the fourth quarter. Overall, US household debt (including credit card balances) rose to a new high of $17.5 trillion in the fourth quarter, up 1.2% from the prior three-month period. So, while there certainly isn’t a shortage of economic hurdles bedeviling people’s budget — and credit card debt has surged — the big picture indicates that, so far, Americans (and their economy) remain healthy.
Persons: ” Russell Price, Price, haven’t, market’s, ” Gregory Daco, ” Lara Rhame, Laura, Jensen Huang, Christine Lagarde, Virgin, Michael Barr, Raphael Bostic, Susan Collins, John Williams, Papa, Austan Goolsbee, Loretta Mester, fuboTV, Christopher Waller, Mary Daly, Adriana Kugler Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Workers, New York Fed, Consumers, Ameriprise, CNN, Federal Reserve Bank of New, . New York Fed, Employers, Soaring, FS Investments, Nvidia, Huawei, AMD, Microsoft, Broadcom, US Commerce Department, Central Bank, eBay, Smucker, Urban Outfitters, Global, Board, TJX, Monster Beverage, Baidu, HP, Paramount Global, Anheuser, Busch Inbev, Dell Technologies, Papa John’s, US Labor Department, National Association of Realtors, P, China’s National Bureau, Statistics, Pearson, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, University of Michigan Locations: Washington, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, ., EY, Santa Clara, Singapore, Shenzhen, China, Beijing, CAVA
Yet Jerome Powell and his central bank colleagues have rebuffed those forecasts, and markets have pushed their rate cut predictions further into 2024. And the producer price index for January came in at 0.3% on Friday, higher than the expected 0.1% increase. Jimmy Chang, the chief investment officer for Rockefeller Global Family Office, told Business Insider that it would be difficult for the Fed to cut rates in the current landscape. AdvertisementThe Fed's next moveThe case for keeping rates unchanged has gained momentum over recent weeks, but both markets and the Fed ultimately expect easing interest rates in 2024. Bank of America forecasts that the first cut likely won't happen until June, and policymakers could opt to cut rates "later and faster."
Persons: Jerome Powell, Nonfarm payrolls, Mary Daly, agilely, Joe Seydl, Seydl, Jimmy Chang, Chang, Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, Jay Woods, We're, Woods, Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Atlanta Fed, San Francisco Fed, JPMorgan Private Bank, Rockefeller Global Family Office, Fed, Chicago Fed, Council, Foreign Relations, Freedom Capital Markets, Bank of America
If productivity is strong, that means the US economy is doing more with less, or being more productive. Productivity is measured by dividing all the goods and services produced in the economy by every hour people worked. “But the economy did well, so that translated into higher productivity, supporting higher wage growth and fending off inflation from accelerating.”Last year’s productivity boom could also be a combination of all of the above. Still, it may be too soon to know if last year’s productivity burst was truly a transformative shift in the US economy. “Sometimes at the very end of an economic cycle, productivity can be boosted by cost-saving measures,” Goodwin of New York Life Investments said.
Persons: ” Lauren Goodwin, Mark Zandi, John Min, Austan Goolsbee, It’s, ” Min, ” Goodwin, Organizations: DC CNN, Labor Department, New York Life Investments, CNN, Microsoft, Meta, Citigroup, Monex, Federal Reserve, Chicago Fed, Bloomberg Locations: Washington
Hong Kong/New Delhi CNN —Japan’s stock market defied gloomy economic data to rally Friday, lifting broader Asian shares and ending the week on a buoyant note. Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 index closed above 38,000 points for the second day in a row, just a whisker off its historic peak reached in December 1989. “If anything, the window of opportunity created by the weak yen is encouraging international investors, as they suspect it will close soon,” he added. The MSCI’s broadest index of Asian shares excluding Japan closed more than 1% higher. On Wall Street, the S&P 500 closed at a record high of 5,029.73 Thursday as US stocks bounced back from steep losses earlier this week.
Persons: , Neil Newman, Stephen Innes, Austan Goolsbee, Innes, Korea’s Organizations: Hong Kong / New Delhi CNN, Analysts, Japan, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Fed, Chicago Fed Locations: Hong Kong / New Delhi, Tokyo, United Kingdom, Asia, Pacific, New York, China
ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was over three basis points lower to 4.228%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last down by around one basis point to 4.5676%. U.S. Treasury yields declined on Thursday as investors considered what could be next for inflation and interest rates and looked to comments from U.S. Federal Reserve speakers and economic data. Investors weighed the outlook for inflation and interest rates after the latest consumer price index — which was released Tuesday — showed that prices rose by more than expected in January. Elsewhere, data showed that the U.K. economy contracted by 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2023, pushing the country into a technical recession.
Persons: , Austan Goolsbee Organizations: Treasury, U.S, U.S . Federal Reserve, Investors, Chicago Fed, Council, Foreign Relations Locations: U.S
Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange on Feb. 7, 2024. U.S. stock futures were flat Tuesday night after the Dow Jones Industrial Average posted its biggest decline since March 2023. Futures tied to the Dow slipped 14 points, or 0.04%. S&P 500 futures inched up 0.02%, and Nasdaq 100 futures added 0.07%. During Tuesday's regular session, the 30-stock Dow shed 1.35% for its worst day since March 2023.
Persons: Dow, Airbnb, Dow Jones, Terry Sandven, Sandven, Austan Goolsbee Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Dow, Federal Reserve, CPI, U.S, Bank Wealth Management, Chicago Fed
Washington, DC CNN —The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold interest rates steady Wednesday for the fourth consecutive meeting, leaving them at a 23-year high as policymakers likely discuss the timing of rate cuts. That’s because, if inflation drifts lower but interest rates remain elevated, it causes “real” interest rates to rise, unnecessarily squeezing the economy and risking job losses. A rapidly weakening economy threatening mass job losses is an obvious reason to cut rates, which most economists aren’t currently forecasting. But another concern that has gained some traction is the rise of inflation-adjusted interest rates, which is an argument for rate cuts. The Fed is set to announce its latest policy decision at 2 pm ET on Wednesday, followed by a press conference from Chair Powell at 2:30 pm ET.
Persons: Jerome Powell’s, , ” Sarah House, , , Christopher Waller, it’s, Mary Daly, they’re, aren’t, Austan Goolsbee, Subadra Rajappa, Générale, Powell Organizations: DC CNN, Federal Reserve, Fed, CNN, ” San Francisco Fed, Fox Business, Chicago Fed, CNBC, PCE, Labor Department Locations: Washington, Wells, ” San
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was down around 2 basis points at 4.1263% while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond slid around 2.5 basis points to 4.3285. U.S. Treasury yields pulled back on Monday morning as investors geared up for another big week of economic data . Two significant pieces of economic data are on the slate this week, with a preliminary fourth-quarter GDP growth figure due on Thursday and the Commerce Department's closely-watched PCE price index for December out Friday. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee told CNBC on Friday that investors should be watching this data point when trying to plot the Fed's rate path. Auctions will be held Monday for $77 billion of 13-week Treasury bills and $70 billion of 26-week bills.
Persons: Dow Jones, Austan Goolsbee Organizations: Treasury, Federal Reserve, Commerce, Chicago Fed, CNBC
Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., January 19, 2024. A day later, the Commerce Department will release the December reading on the personal consumption expenditures price index, a favorite Fed inflation gauge. "That's the thing that everybody should be watching to determine what the Fed's rate path will end up being," Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said during an interview Friday on CNBC. On top of that, several of Goolsbee's colleagues, including Governor Christopher Waller, New York Fed President John Williams and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, issued commentary indicating that at the very least they are in no hurry to cut even if the hikes are probably done. watch now"I don't like tying my hands, and we still have weeks of data," Goolsbee said.
Persons: Brendan Mcdermid, Dow Jones, Austan Goolsbee, Christopher Waller, John Williams, Raphael Bostic, Goolsbee Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Reuters Markets, Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, Chicago Fed, CNBC, Group, Christopher Waller , New York Fed, Atlanta Fed, Labor Department Locations: New York City, U.S, Christopher Waller , New
New York CNN —The S&P 500 index closed Friday at a record high, fueled by surging tech stocks and bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year. The benchmark index closed at 4,839.81, besting its previous high of 4,796.56, reached on January 3, 2022. Earlier in the trading session, the S&P 500 reached an intraday high of 4,832.17, topping its previous intraday high of 4,818.62, reached more than two years ago, on January 4, 2022. After a rocky start to the year, the S&P 500 has found its footing and is up about 1.5% in 2024. The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a record high close in December as investors cheered the Fed’s dovish tilt.
Persons: , Raphael Bostic, doesn’t, Christopher Waller, Austin Goolsbee, ” Goolsbee Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Fed, Dow, Atlanta Fed, Chicago Fed, CNBC Locations: New York
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChicago Fed President Goolsbee: A 'mistake' for the market to hinge on the words of Fed officialsChicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the Fed's inflation fight, rate path outlook, state of the economy, and more.
Persons: Goolsbee, Austan Goolsbee Organizations: Chicago, Chicago Fed
“The key thing we have to watch is housing,” Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said Friday. He is shown above at The Wall Street Journal Global Food Forum in Chicago in June. Photo: Kevin Sikorski for The Wall Street JournalInflation seems on track toward the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and now the big question is what will happen with housing in 2024, a top Fed official said Friday. “It was absolutely where we wanted it to be,” Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said of the government’s latest inflation data.
Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Kevin Sikorski Organizations: Chicago Fed, Wall Street, Food Forum, The Wall, Federal, Fed Locations: Chicago
Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., October 27, 2023. Market participants now await policy comments from Powell at two separate discussions scheduled for 11 a.m. After recent conflicting remarks from other policymakers, investors are concerned that Powell could push back against the rate cut narrative. Other officials, including Fed Governors Lisa Cook and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee are also scheduled to speak during the day. Reporting by Shristi Achar A and Amruta Khandekar in Bengaluru; Editing by Shinjini GanguliOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Powell, Jerome Powell's, Dow Jones, underscoring, Sophie Lund, Yates, Hargreaves Lansdown, Lisa Cook, Austan Goolsbee, Alibaba, Morgan Stanley, danuglipron, Paula Oyibo, Shristi Achar, Shinjini Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal, Chicago Fed, P Global, ISM, Dow e, Pfizer, Marvell Technology, Automation, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Bengaluru
A street sign for Wall Street is seen in the financial district in New York, U.S., November 8, 2021. Markets are now fully pricing a rate cut by the May meeting with almost a 50% chance they move in March, according to the CME's FedWatch tool. Reuters GraphicsThe 10-year yield is down around 15 basis points and on Thursday hit its lowest level in 2-1/2 months at 4.247%. On Wednesday, the dollar index , which measures the currency against six major peers, touched its lowest level since Aug. 11 and dropped over 3% last month, its worst month in a year. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Samuel Indyk, Jerome Powell's, Powell, Christopher Waller, Europe's, Fed's, Fed's Cook, ECB's, Fitch, Toby Chopra Organizations: Wall, REUTERS, Federal, Fed, Spelman College, Reuters, COVID, P Global, PMI, Thomson Locations: New York, U.S, France, Greece, Ireland, DBRS, Germany, Spain
Periods of high inflation would offset those when inflation was low as occurred between the financial crisis and the pandemic. Those concerns may not matter anymore if the pandemic has driven inflation and interest rates chronically higher. Speaking at a Boston Fed labor market conference in November, Kohn said the new framework showed the risks of not keeping inflation at bay to begin with. "Probing" for maximum employment "can't ignore...inflation risks," Kohn said, calling for a return to a strategy disavowed in the last review. "I think preemptive tightening is best-practice central banking, and I hope they return to allowing that."
Persons: Joshua Roberts, Jerome Powell, There's, Miesha Williams, Powell, Charles Evans, Evans, Fed, Loretta Mester, Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, Donald Kohn, Kohn, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal Reserve, REUTERS, Rights, U.S, Federal, Spelman College, Reuters, Chicago Fed, Chicago, Cleveland Fed, Boston Fed, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Atlanta
Morning Bid: Waller to Wall St, Fed's on the turn
  + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +6 min
A street sign for Wall Street is seen in the financial district in New York, U.S., November 8, 2021. But back in the markets, the Fed's policy pivot was all the rage as Treasury yields and dollar plunged anew. New York Fed chief John Williams said long-term inflation expectations were anchored, reassuring and "remarkably stable". Fed futures now have the first Fed rate cut of a quarter point fully priced for May and 110bps of rate cuts by year-end. Two-year Treasury yields plunged more than 15 basis points to four-month lows of 4.66% on Wednesday, with 10-year yields hitting their lowest since mid-September - a startling drop of more than 75bps in little over a month.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Wall, Charlie Munger, Berkshire Hathaway's Munger, Warren Buffett, Christopher Waller, Jerome Powell, Waller, John Williams, Austan Goolsbee, Michelle Bowman, Powell, Stocks, smartly, Hong, Thomas Barkin, Loretta Mester, Andrew Bailey, BoE, Andrew Hauser, Blinken, Sergey Lavrov, Jane Merriman Organizations: Wall, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Waller . New York Fed, Chicago Fed, HK, Austria's, Holdings, Richmond Fed, Cleveland Fed, Bank of England, London, Russian, Foods, Intuit, Petco, Thomson, Reuters Locations: New York, U.S, Berkshire, Waller ., China, Europe, Vienna, North Macedonia
"Inflation rates are moving along pretty much like I thought," Fed Governor Christopher Waller, a hawkish and influential voice at the central bank, told the American Enterprise Institute think tank on Tuesday. If the decline in inflation continues "for several more months ... three months, four months, five months ... we could start lowering the policy rate just because inflation is lower," he said. Additional Fed rate increases remain a possibility if upcoming data includes an unexpected resurgence of price pressures, he said. But even Bowman, who like Waller is among the Fed's most hawkish officials, stopped short of outright calling for a further increase in the policy rate. New inflation data will be released on Thursday, and policymakers will also have a fresh monthly jobs report and other data in hand before they gather next month.
Persons: Christopher Waller, Bond, Waller's, Jerome Powell, Michelle Bowman, Bowman, Waller, Austan Goolsbee, Howard Schneider, Ann Saphir, Lindsay Dunsmuir, Andrea Ricci, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, American Enterprise Institute, Fed, Spelman College, Utah Bankers Association, Chicago Fed, Conference Board, Thomson Locations: U.S, Atlanta, Salt Lake City
Morning Bid: Treasuries gobbled up, oil braces for OPEC
  + stars: | 2023-11-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 17, 2023. Benchmark Treasury yields fell back more than 10 basis points to 4.37% after a total of $109 billion of 2 and 5-year notes hit the Street on Monday without much disruption. Another weak U.S. housing readout, with sub-forecast new home sales last month, perhaps flattered the post-auction moves. That's likely a mixed blessing for Federal Reserve watchers - the continued buoyancy of consumption but with increasing price discrimination. Fed futures priced about 85bps of rate cuts through next year, starting in June, though many major banks expect even more.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, That's, Hong, Louis, Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman, Michael Barr, Austan Goolsbee, Christine Lagarde, Philip Lane, Dave Ramsden, BoE, Jonathan Haskel, Hewlett Packard, Ed Osmond Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Treasuries, Treasury, Adobe Digital, Federal Reserve, Louis Fed, U.S . Treasury, Richmond Fed, Dallas Fed, . Treasury, Chicago Fed, European Central Bank, ECB, Bank of England, Citi Trends, Fluence Energy, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Asia, Europe, United States, China, New York, St, Uxin, Canaan, Elbit
Stocks traded mixed on Tuesday as investors slowed down on the November rally. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementUS stocks traded mixed on Tuesday as investors pulled back on the November rally ahead of remarks from a cadre of Federal Reserve officials. Policymakers on the docket today include Fed Governors Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman, and Michael Barr, as well as Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee.
Persons: Stocks, , Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman, Michael Barr, Austan Goolsbee, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Traders, Federal Reserve, Service, Fed, Chicago Fed, Bank of America, RBC Capital Markets, Here's, Dow Jones
A man looks at an electric monitor displaying the Japanese yen exchange rate against the U.S. dollar and Nikkei share average outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan October 4, 2023. REUTERS/Issei Kato/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNov 28 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets. Volatility across major asset classes is low - implied volatility on Wall Street is at its lowest in almost four years, global currency implied vol is the lowest since early last year, and U.S. bond vol is at a two-month low. China's markets, especially, have lagged, although Japanese stocks have outperformed thanks to the weak yen and a historic loosening of wider financial conditions. The Aussie on Monday rose above $0.66 for the first time since Aug. 10 and was one of the biggest winners among major currencies along with the Japanese yen and New Zealand dollar.
Persons: Issei Kato, Goldman Sachs, Michele Bullock, Bullock, Philip Lowe, Bullock's, Fed's Waller, Bowman, Goolsbee, Barr, Jamie McGeever Organizations: U.S ., Nikkei, REUTERS, Reserve Bank of Australia, Hong Kong Monetary Authority, Bank for International, New Zealand, Bank of, RBA, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Tokyo, Japan, U.S, Asia, Hong Kong, Bank of Japan, Australia
Stock futures are flat Monday night as traders analyzed the strong gains seen throughout November and the trading month nears its end. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures were both near flat. The Dow and S&P 500 both finished Monday's session around 0.2% lower, while the Nasdaq Composite inched down nearly 0.1%. Monday's modest retreat comes near the end of November's strong trading month, which concludes with Thursday's close. The Dow and S&P 500 are on pace to finish the month 6.9% and 8.5% higher, respectively.
Persons: Zscaler, Thursday's, Shopify, Terry Sandven, Austan Goolsbee, Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Dow, Investors, Amazon, U.S, Bank Wealth Management, Federal Reserve, Chicago Fed Locations: New York City, U.S, billings
There's a new top dog when it comes to yields on 1-year certificates of deposit, according to an analysis by Stephens. Bread Financial now has the highest annual percentage yield for 1-year CDs among banks in Stephens' coverage at 5.6%. However, the online bank didn't reach the top by raising its APY. Instead, it was because LendingClub slashed its 1-year CD yield by 10 basis points to 5.55%, analyst Vincent Caintic said. "Online banks had already been cutting 1yr CD rates and this may likely continue as near-term rate expectations fall," Caintic said.
Persons: Stephens, LendingClub, Vincent Caintic, Caintic, What's, Austan Goolsbee, Jerome Powell, Michael Bloom, Jeff Cox Organizations: Bread, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, The Fed, Investors, Chicago Fed Locations: Stephens
“Any time we’ve had a serious cut to the inflation rate, it’s come with a major recession," Goolsbee said in an interview with The Associated Press. “And so the golden path is a ... bigger soft landing than conventional wisdom believes has ever been possible. Last week, the government reported that inflation cooled in October, with core prices — which exclude volatile food and energy prices — rising just 0.2% from September. The year-over-year increase in core prices — 4% — was the smallest in two years. The Fed tracks core prices because they are considered a better gauge of inflation's future path.
Persons: Goolsbee, we’ve, ” Goolsbee, , Susan Collins, ” Collins, hasn't Organizations: WASHINGTON, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Associated Press, Wall, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
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